22nd Century: Predictions

Here are some amazing predictions about human society and the earth on which we live for the 22nd century. Remember, these are intelligent predictions, whatever really happens remains to be seen.

• From 2100 onward, 12% (about 1250) of the bird species existing at the beginning of the 21st century are expected to be extinct or threatened with extinction.
• From the beginning of the 22nd century, human intelligence will be vastly amplified by artificial intelligence.
• Around the same time, nomadic floating cities will be roaming the oceans.
• Also, by 2100, Emperor Penguins could be pushed to the brink of extinction due to global climate change, according to a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution study from January 2009. The study applied mathematical models to predict how the loss of sea ice from climate warming would affect an Antarctica colony of Emperor Penguins, and they forecast a decline of 87% in the colony’s population by the end of the century.
• In 2110, man-made control of earthquakes and tsunamis will become possible.
• In 2120, mind uploading will enter mainstream society.
• From 2130 onwards, a large-scale civilian settlement of the Moon will be underway.
• From the second half of the 22nd century onwards, interstellar travel will become possible.
• Also, in 2150, androids will be physically indistinguishable from real humans.
• In 2160, mass extinctions will level off.
• Around the same time, the first humans will live to be bicentenarians.
• In 2180, antimatter power plants are about to start up.
• In 2182, with an estimated probability of 0.07%, Apollo asteroid 1999 RQ₃₆ (also known as 101955 Bennu) could hit the Earth. It has a mean diameter of approximately 493 meters.
• In 2190, global languages will have become few in number.
• According to the UN Population Bureau, life expectancy in 2200 will be around 100 for developed countries and the world population will be about 8.5 billion.

“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.” ― Albert Einstein

See other: Hall of Fame Posts

Adeism [Noun.]

The philosophy that refuses to believe or accept any premise which is not supported by some sort of evidence, and which therefore maintains that all metaphysical and supernatural phenomena (deism) as well as all theologies and other religious doctrines (theism) are plainly superstitious and, in reality, subject to more sophisticated explanations, or even partly or wholly invalid.

According to adeists (who are essentially empiricists when it comes to the supernatural and the religious) anything can be dismissed which cannot be proven; to quote Christopher Hitchens, ‘That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.’

“You may wish to be a deist as my heroes Thomas Jefferson and Thomas Payne were, and you may not wish to abandon the idea that there must be some sort of first or proximate cause, or prime mover of the known and observable world and universe; but even if you can get yourself to that position – which we unbelievers maintain is always subject to better and more perfect and more elegant explanations – even if you can get yourself to that position: all your work is still ahead of you to go from being a deist to a theist. In other words, to someone who says god cares about you, knows who you are, minds what you do, answers your prayers, cares which bits of your penis or clitoris you sew away or have sewn away for you, minds who you go to bed with and in what way, minds what holy days you observe, minds what you eat, minds what positions you use for pleasure: all your work is still ahead of you and lots of luck, because there is nobody, there’s nobody – even Aquinas had to give it up – there’s no one who can move from the first position to the second.”

― Christopher Hitchens

29/i mmxiv

On January 7, 1558, the French nobleman Francis, Duke of Guise, captures Calais, the last English possession in mainland France.

Duke of Guise

Because of a mistake in one of the five-year plans, during a brief period in the 1950s, Soviet Russia virtually ran out of lavatory paper; however, no official wanted to admit to this at the time, nor let it come out. So, to prevent the shortage from becoming public knowledge, the Soviet government made a secret trade agreement with Britain in which they bought vast amounts of compensatory lavatory paper. For months, British planes flew to Soviet Russia delivering the grey cargo. This was done at night to minimise the risk of discovery.

On January 11, 1569, The first official lottery is held in England, with 10 shilling lots sold at old St Paul’s Cathedral.

Moses is mentioned more in the Quran than any other individual. Jesus is mentioned more often in the Quran than Muhammad while Mary is mentioned in the Quran more than in the New Testament.

On 29 January, 1886, German engineer Karl Benz patents the first practical car powered by a petrol internal combustion engine.

See other: Quite Interesting Facts

On An Alternative Ten Commandments

Christopher Hitchens’ Ten Commandments:

1. Do not condemn people on the basis of their ethnicity or their colour.
2. Do not ever even think of using people as private property.
3. Despise those who use violence or the threat of it in sexual relations.
4. Hide your face and weep if you dare to harm a child.
5. Do not condemn people for their inborn nature.
6. Be aware that you, too, are an animal, and dependent on the web of nature. Try to think and act accordingly.
7. Do not imagine you can avoid judgement if you rob people (by lying to them) rather than with a knife.
8. Turn off that fucking cell phone.
9. Denounce all jihadists and crusaders for what they are: psychopathic criminals with ugly delusions and terrible sexual repressions.
10. Reject any faith if their commandments contradict any of the above.

“Don’t swallow your moral code in tablet form.”
– Christopher Hitchens

Types of Procrastinators

How to identify your procrastination type and learn to manage it. Adapted from It’s About Time: the 6 Styles of Procrastination and How to Overcome Them by Dr. Linda Sapadin with Jack Maguire, Penguin Books, 1996.

Perfectionist

I often find it difficult to begin a task because the thought of getting every detail perfect is overwhelming.

Once I’ve started a task, finishing it can be hard as I want every detail in place.

• Focus on what’s realistic rather than what’s ideal; work toward excellence rather than perfection.
• Seek support from others before you’re under too much pressure.
• Make daily to-do lists with small, broken-down tasks that you can complete on a given day.
• Commit to rewarding yourself for setting and achieving realistic goals.
• Admit that you choose what you do with your time; work on self-acceptance skills.

“Never put off till tomorrow what may be done day after tomorrow just as well.” ― Mark Twain

Worrier

Many tasks seem risky or unnecessary.

I prefer to stay in my comfort zone and avoid change.

• Learn to make realistic judgements about the time and effort required to complete a task.
• Remind yourself that choosing not to make a decision about a task or action is itself a decision.
• Don’t allow “what if” thinking to take you out of action.
• Break down tasks into manageable parts to reduce anxiety.
• Every day, do at least part of one thing you’ve been putting off because you’re uncomfortable about it.
• Consider the aspects of a project that are exciting to you, rather than just the challenges.

“Only put off until tomorrow what you are willing to die having left undone.” ― Pablo Picasso

Crisis-Maker

I feel that I work best under pressure.

I enjoy the rush of working under a deadline on a task that might otherwise seem boring.

• Strive for moderation: avoid speaking and thinking in dramatic, emotional language.
• Remind yourself: you may not be interested in a task until you start.
• Identify motivators for a task and use them rather than using stress as a motivator.
• Keep a record of your crises: what triggered them, how you reacted.
• Create deadlines for yourself as a way to use your natural adrenaline rush to complete tasks earlier.
• Regularly engage in activities that will give you an adrenaline rush: play competitive sports, go out with friends, or take up a new hobby.

“Time you enjoy wasting is not wasted time.” ― Marthe Troly-Curtin, Phrynette Married

Dreamer

Abstract thoughts are more pleasant to think about than the real-life actions that need to be taken.

I find it difficult to plan details and/or to follow through with a task.

• Try to differentiate between dreams that are vague and goals that are specific and measurable.
• Make your dream into a goal: define what, when, where, who, why, and how you will complete it.
• Keep a to-do list and assign yourself a few tasks each day.
• Use an alarm or timer as a way to remind you when to get to work.
• Schedule time for creative daydreaming.
• Plan out projects and tasks in writing.
• To counteract mind-wandering, get active—explain things aloud, teach the material to someone, or tackle a small part of your project.

“Procrastination is the art of keeping up with yesterday.” ― Don Marquis

Over-Doer

I find it difficult to prioritize and say no to other demands on my time.

Sometimes I take on too much and then procrastinate on one task for the sake of completing other tasks.

• Recognize and respect your personal limitations.
• Rank your priorities in life and post this list somewhere. Make choices about your time in accordance with this list.
• Incorporate time to relax into your schedule—and learn to enjoy it. Don’t feel guilty about taking time for yourself.
• Focus your thoughts on how to gain personal control, rather than how tasks control you. Learn to say “no” to tasks when appropriate. Try saying a pleasant “no” each day.
• Envision life as an adventure in making choices, not a struggle to do everything.
• Make daily to-do lists based on true priorities.

“Procrastinate now, don’t put it off.” ― Ellen DeGeneres

Defier

Many tasks seem like an unfair or unnecessary use of my time and energy.

I prefer to maintain control over situations and retain a sense of individuality.

• Rank your priorities in life, and devote your energies accordingly.
• Reflect on the ways you could potentially respond to a task before acting.
• Be aware when you’re choosing defiance. Ask yourself whether long-term regrets are worth short term pleasure.
• Strive to act, rather than react.
• Learn self-calming strategies.
• Own up to your actions—especially if you did not complete a task you agreed to.
• Choose one task every week that you will complete in your own way in order to satisfy your need for individuality.

“Procrastination is the thief of time, collar him.” ― Charles Dickens, David Copperfield

Religiosity and Poverty

In 2006, 2007, and 2008, the Gallup institute asked representative samples in 143 countries and territories whether religion was an important part of their daily lives. Across all populations, the median proportion of residents who said religion is important in their daily lives is 82%. Americans fall well below this midpoint, at 65%.

“Owners of dogs will have noticed that, if you provide them with food and water and shelter and affection, they will think you are god. Whereas owners of cats are compelled to realize that, if you provide them with food and water and shelter and affection, they draw the conclusion that they are gods.” ― Christopher Hitchens, The Portable Atheist

Out of the results, one interesting conclusion can be reached, namely: a population’s religiosity level is strongly related to its average standard of living. In fact, Gallup’s World Poll indicates that 8 of the 11 countries in which almost all residents (at least 98%) say religion is important in their daily lives are poorer nations in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. As a general rule, the poorer and underdeveloped a nation, the more religious its inhabitants are likely to be.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, the 10 least religious countries studied include several with the world’s highest living standards, including Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Hong Kong, and Japan.

Social scientists have noted that one thing that makes Americans distinctive is our high level of religiosity relative to other rich-world populations. Among 27 countries commonly seen as part of the developed world, the median proportion of those who say religion is important in their daily lives is just 38%. From this perspective, the fact that two-thirds of Americans respond with 65% makes them look extremely devout in relation to their GDP.

What’s more, as Gallup’s Frank Newport recently pointed out, there is wide regional variation in religiosity across the 50 American states. The proportion of those who say religion is important in their daily lives is highest in Mississippi, at 85% – a figure that is slightly higher than the worldwide median (among all countries, rich and poor). Two others, Alabama (82%) and South Carolina (80%) are on par with the worldwide median.

“There are people in the world so hungry, that God cannot appear to them except in the form of bread.” ― Mahatma Gandhi

Lining up these percentages with those on our worldwide list allows us to match residents of the most religious states to the global populations with which they are similar in terms of religiosity. The results produce some interesting comparisons: Alabamians, for example, are about as likely as Iranians to say religion is an important part or their lives. And ironically, Georgians in the United States are about as religious as the Georgians of the Caucasus.

On the Attack

Rhetorical fallacies are subtle errors in speech and writing. – The manipulation of rhetoric and logical thinking. The following fallacies can be categorised as ‘On the Attack’.

Ad hominem

Bypassing the argument by launching an irrelevant attack on the person and not their claim.

“Anyone who says we should build the Ground Zero Mosque is an American-hating liberal.”

Burden of proof

I don’t need to prove my claim – you must prove it is false.

“I maintain long-term solar cycles are the cause of global warming. Show me I’m wrong.”

Circumstance ad hominem

Stating a claim isn’t credible only because of the advocate’s interest in their claim.

“A study into the health risks of mobile phone involved mobile phone companies. Therefore, the study cannot be trusted.”

Genetic fallacy

Attacking the cause or origin of a claim, rather than its substance.

“Of course, the mainstream liberal media aren’t going to say Barack Obama is a Muslim.”

Guilt by association

Discrediting an idea or claim by associating it with an undesirable person or group.

“You want to relax the anti-terrorism laws just like the terrorists want us to do. Are you saying you support terrorism?”

Straw man

Creating a distorted or simplified caricature of your opponent’s argument, and then arguing against that.

“You say Israel should stop building settlements on the West Bank in violation of treaty. So you’re saying Israel doesn’t have the right to be a nation?”

See other: Rhetorical Fallacies

Onna Bugeisha‏

With their husbands in combat almost continuously, the 16th century onna bugeisha or samurai women provided for the defence of their homes and children, but they were anything but docile and traditional.

For instance, their wartime roles included washing and preparing the decapitated bloody heads of the enemy, which were presented to the victorious generals. And like their samurai husbands, personal honour was paramount for samurai women. They carried small daggers and were always prepared to die to maintain their honour and family name.

After Tokugawa Ieyasu had unified Japan, however, the Shogun who ruled between 1603 and 1605, the role of women changed. Their samurai husbands, no longer fighting wars, became bureaucrats. In turn, women became more domestic and were also now encouraged to supervise their children’s education and manage the household.

From then on, life for Japanese women became more restricted. Travel became highly difficult for samurai women during the years of the Tokugawa Shogunate (1600-1868). Forbidden from travelling alone, they were required to carry travel permits, and were from then on usually accompanied by a man. Therefore, ironically, peace impoverished the role of women in Japanese society from the 17th century onwards.